This strategy worked well for many years, but with the growing popularity in a pass heavy offense and the propensity for coaches to employ ACTUAL running back committees, this strategy no longer works as fool proof as it has in the past.  With as often as a teams offensive structure changes, from skill position changes to line and coaching changes, it’s a silly thing to only consider the previous years performance as a litmus test towards drafting.  For example, whomever took a first round flier on Chris Johnson, and unknown quantity last year, road that bit of fantasy luck into many championships.  This year, he’s the defacto #1, edging out last years top guys Adrian Peterson and Maurice Jones-Drew.

So this begs the question, if I don’t draft a RB in the first round, will there be enough talent in Rnd’s 2 and 3 to build a capable roster around, and if I don’t draft RB, who do I go for?

There’s no simple answer to these questions, and tricky draft strategies, like waiting on RB’s in favor of WR’s and QB’s is a tactic best left to heavy researchers and experienced team owners.  Every Tom, Dick and Harry went out of their own way to draft Tom Brady in 2008 because of his historic 4,500 yard, 50 TD 2007 campaign, only to watch their fantasy teams go down in flames week 1 as Brady was lost for the season.

This example is perfect for illustrating how a ‘sure thing’ can backfire.

My best advice to drafting a fantasy team is to know where guys are typically going (ADP) and then re-inventing your strategy as guys go and as bye weeks pile up.  It’s still safe taking a RB in round 1, as after the top 10 backs or so, the level of Fantasy Production drops off significantly. Late in the first round is when you begin to question whether having Drew Brees at the helm is better than Shonn Greene, and sometimes depending on how you’re drafting this is the right move.

After the first round, things get muddled.  Do you go for WR or QB to try and structure your team around two elite talents? Do you build depth by grabbing another big name RB? This is really up to you, and there’s no correct answer.  Pitfalls abound based on strategy so make sure you’re paying attention to whose LEFT on the board before you make a long shot pick.

An example of this is if you grabbed a guy like the affor mentioned Brees instead of a starting RB like Shonn Greene, you could be light on production from a RB.  This is emphasized even more when a guy like Matt Shaub is still available but you’re forced to grab Ryan Grant because there aren’t any starters left.

To summarize, there’s no logic in following trends that were popular or successful in the past.  The only way to Fantasy Glory is through research and a personal involvement in developing your draft strategy.  Follow your gut, and don’t be afraid to OVER draft your skill positions, because TE, DEF and K are positions you can fill successfully through waivers as the year progresses.

The biggest concern here is the change of regimes.  As it’s been focused on, Jagodzinski was brought in to bring a more verticle attack to the offense in TB, and his release signals an end to that experiment.  With 1 week remaining until the first game of the regular season, it leaves a lot of questions as to how the offense will operate.

Olson, a quarterback coach in Detroit, then in St. Louis, has had a rough go of it in that position.  It’s being speculated that Jagodzinski wasn’t on board with the choice of Byron Leftwich as the starting QB.

Fantasy Fallout: Stay away from Tampa Bay’s offensive cogs.  Leftwich has never been a Fantasy producer, and with a 3 headed monster at RB, there’s not much upside for anybody here. Odds are you’d have to overpay for Derrick Ward, and Earnest Graham, and Cadillac Williams won’t be relevant unless a miracle happens.

The big report out of Detroit over the last few days is the grevious injury suffered by QB Daunte Culpepper… while he was walking in his house.  Jim Shwartz told the press that Culpepper ‘stubbed’ his foot, and it resulted in 8 stitches.  8 stitches for a stubbed toe? and on a carpet no less?!

It’s not my job to be a lie detector or speculate on what really happened.  What this does, is ends the quarterback contriversy in Detroit.  Matthew Stafford should move up a little on draft boards, but not enough to actually get drafted in a 10-12 team league.

It also leaves a sour taste in my mouth regarding fantasy stud Calvin Johnson.  As good as he is, do we really think he’ll finish top 5 with a rookie taking over the reigns on a struggling team with no offensive consistency over the last few years?  He’ll still have 1100 recieving yards, but the TD’s will dip, probably closer to 7.

Unfortunately, despite going to a contender in the Minnesota Vikings, they’re a run first team.  Adrian Peterson is going to touch the ball 25 times a game, and Chester Taylor will probably see a good chunk of time on the field too. So what does that mean for the man under center?

Looking at the quarterback rankings, I’ve noticed not many people are giving Favre much of a chance at regaining much of a semblance of the old Favre.  At FFToolbox, he’s ranked behind Kyle Orton and Chad Pennington, and he’s just ahead of Marc Bulger and Shaun Hill, two guys who may not win more than 3 games a piece.

My opinion? Stay away from Brett Favre.  He’s not worth even a flier pick late in a draft.  He’ll likely put up ok numbers, with one or two big weeks thanks to Bernard Berrian, but don’t read too much into this.  He’s there as a second option to the ground game, and won’t be used in large doses.

For example, if you draft Tom Brady in the late 1st round or early 2nd, you’re picking with visions of season ending knee injuries in the back of your head.  Is it worth it to snag another QB in round 7 or 8? In a 10-12 person league, looking at the QB ADP’s, that would net you a guy like Eli Manning or Matt Hasselback as a backup.  If you want to wait a little longer, you may end up with a guy like Trent Edwards or Shaun Hill.  There’s always a contingent that will say play the waivers if you want a bench guy, as there will always be a player who overperforms.

I’m personally of the mindset that grabbing a second quarterback if you reach for a QB early is a wise decision.  Odds are that your 8th round pick is a TE or a bench player, so what’s the harm?  Besides, if you grab yourself a huge sleeper (ala Matt Hasselback) then you could have a great trade situation on your hands.

What’s your stratagy?

This year is no exception, so without further ado, here are my top twelve sleeper picks (3 for each position not including K and D/ST)

RB3 – Jerious Norwood (ATL): Norwood’s name has come up in three straight seasons as a sleeper pick, and unfortunately, he was never given the chance to prove himself as a proven carrier.  Looking at his stats from last year tho, you can see he still had 95 rushes and 36 receptions. He’s never averaged less than 5 yards per carry, and his targets have steadily rose over the last 3 years as he’s cemented himself as the #2 on the team.  If Michael Turner goes down for any reason, then he’ll immediately become relevant.

RB2 – Donald Brown (IND): Joseph Addai was supposed to be the running back of the future for the Colts, but after a sub par year, they went out and grabbed a RB in the first round.  Brown was a monster on the ground for the Huskies last year, tallying an incredible 2083 yards. He’ll eat into Addai’s carries, much like Rhodes did a few years ago, with the exception that he’s obviously there to supplant Addai at some point.

RB1 – Ray Rice (BAL): There’s a lot of people who have high expectations for Rice, and I’m one of them. I’ve been following Ray Rice since he was lighting up defenses at Rutgers.  He was undervalued then, and I believe he’s being overlooked yet again.  One of the reason’s he’s falling in drafts is because he’s sharing the backfield with Le’Ron McLain and Willis McGahee, but I fully expect him to see the bulk of the carries, and handle a lot of the passing downs.  With 33 receptions last year as a change of pace back, he totalled 200+ yards through the air.  If you can get him in one of the middle rounds, he won’t disappoint.

QB3 – Jason Campbell (WAS): Since he broke into the league 2006, we’ve all known he had a strong arm, but it was efficiency and a shaky recieving core that kept him from reaching his potential.  After a solid year with nearly 3300 yards and a 2:1 TD to INT ratio, I’m ready to put him into that class of reliable fantasy QB.  He should be available late in the draft or on waivers after.  Not a bad guy to keep on your bench if you spent a high draft pick on a QB.

QB2 – Joe Flacco (BAL): I’ve been high on this guy since the draft two years ago, and I maintain that he’s got the size, ability, and skill to be an elite level quarterback at the NFL level.  If he can get good production from an iffy recieving core and protection from his line, he’ll absolutely improve on his 2008 numbers.

QB3 – Marc Bulger (STL): Yes, durability is a big issue here, but a lot of people forget he’s only one season removed from a 3900 yard 22 TD campaign.  I can forgive him his INT’s because of the lack of protection he got from the line, but last years numbers should be an abberation.  Bulger can throw the ball, he’s fairly consistent when he’s on the field, and he hovers around 66% on completions.  The fact that he’ll be on waivers through the first week means you can wait on him, but don’t be surprised if he puts in another 3500 and 25TD season.

WR3 – Lance Moore (NO): He’s playing in the most pass happy system in the league, and we all know that Drew Brees is the most accurate passer there is.  He’s leapfrogged Maechem into the #2 spot on the team behind Colston, and I figure he’ll have as many targets, if not more than his speedy counterpart.

WR2 – Donnie Avery (STL): This passing attack has been totally non-existant for a while now, and one would expect that Bulger is due for a better season than last.  Without Holt or Isaac Bruce in the lineup, Bulger will be throwing to Avery a whole lot more.  If anything, he should see the majority of passes among everyone not named Steven Jackson.

WR1 – Chris Henry (CIN): Despite his issues in the past, Henry should be on his best behaviour this year, which will keep him on the field for a full season.  His physical ability is equal to that of his teammate Chad Ochocinqo, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he finished the season with top 10 WR numbers.  For a guy who’s being ranked 232nd in ESPN drafts, that’s a TON of upside.

TE3 – Anthony Fasano (MIA): Keep in mind that Fasano was added to the offense at the beginning of 08, same time that Chad Pennington came on board.  He still managed 450 yards and 7 TD’s.  With another year under his belt and Chad Pennington’s use of his TE’s in the past, he could post some big games, and should certainly have a heavy TD total.

TE2 – Owen Daniels (HOU): He put in a lot of work receiving the ball in Houston’s offense last year, tallying 70 receptions.  He looks to be a big part of the offense again, and with the maturing Schaub at QB, I expect another 800 yard season, and more than the 2 TD’s from last year.  He could finish in the top 5 for TE’s.

TE1 – Greg Olsen (CHI): You can argue that Olsen isn’t a sleeper because of his season last year, but I beg to differ. With a great QB in Cutler throwing the ball, and a lack of possession recievers, Olsen could potentially be the leading reciever for the Bears.  He’s big, can catch, can block, and has supplanted Desmond Clark on the depth chart as the #1 tight end.  The reason he’s a sleeper? I think he will finish just behind Jason Witten for fantasy production among TE’s this year, ahead of Gates, Gonzalez and Clark, who will all go well ahead of him.

There’s plenty more sleepers out there, and it all comes down to the confidence you have in your research.  Like I’ve said before, don’t let anyone tell you you’re wrong, because there’s no formula to calculate these things.

Good Drafting!

RUNNING BACKS

I think the majority of drafters out there agree that the Running Back position is the most important to your Fantasy team’s health, so that’s where we’ll start.

1. Adrian Peterson
2. Michael Turner
3. Maurice Jones-Drew
4. Matt Forte
5. DeAngelo Williams
6. Steven Jackson
7. Ladainian Tomlinson
8. Frank Gore
9. Chris Johnson
10. Clinton Portis
11. Steve Slaton
12. Marion Barber
13. Kevin Smith
14. Brandon Jacobs
15. Brian Westbrook

With the exception of Peterson and Turner, positions 3-10 are interchangable based on the drafters preferences or hunches, so don’t think if you lost out on MJD that you’re stepping down to Forte or LT, they’re both as likely to put up huge numbers as anyone else on that list. Portis rounds out my top 10, and he’s a fitting turn from studs to question marks.  11-15 on my list all have the potential and talent to be top 5 guys, but they all have question marks. I think the biggest upside is Detroits Kevin Smith whose rookie year was impressive enough, and if the Detroit offense improves at all, could make the biggest sophomore splash. And for the record, i won’t be drafting Jacobs or Westbrook for the simple fact that there’s better options with less concerns.

WIDE RECIEVERS

1. Andre Johnson
2. Calvin Johnson
3. Larry Fitzgerald
4. Randy Moss
5. Roddy White
6. Reggie Wayne
7. Steve Smith
8. Anquan Boldin
9. Greg Jennings
10. Marques Colston
11. Dwayne Bowe
12. Terrell Owens
13. Wes Welker
14. TJ Houshmanzadeh
15. Chad Ochocinco

You may not agree with this list at all; that’s fine. WR is quite deep this year, and if you’re taking RB’s in the first two rounds, you won’t get the top three or four on this list anyways.  If you’re NOT taking a RB in the second round, feel free to draft whomever you want.  A case can be made that Larry Fitzgerald or Calvin Johnson should be the #1 on this list, but I feel that with an aging QB, and with a healthy Anquan Boldin (not to mention Steve Breaston eating into the reps), his numbers won’t be as consistent as they were when Boldin went down last year. Calvin Johnson, despite having incredible physical skills and size, has a lot to prove before I rank him ahead of Andre Johnson.  That being said, I won’t be upset with any of the three. The next tier of WR’s falls off just slightly, with Moss, Wayne, White and Smith all the undisputed #1′s on their teams and a history of consistency. Keep an eye on Chris Henry this year, I think he may end up with better numbers than his teammate and #15 Chad Ochocinco.

QUARTERBACKS

1. Drew Brees
2. Tom Brady
3. Peyton Manning
4. Donovan McNabb
5. Aaron Rogers
6. Philip Rivers
7. Tony Romo
8. Kurt Warner
9. Matt Schaub
10. Matt Ryan
11. Jay Cutler
12. Matt Hasselback
13. Ben Rothlesburger
14. Eli Manning
15. Matt Cassel

My opinions on some of these guys seem to differ from the rest of the Fantasy world, and that’s ok.  I think Donovan McNabb is poised to have a big season, which is in part because of the big play ability of DeSean Jackson.  They’ll be throwing a lot, so expect him to start fast. Two possible sleepers you can probably get in the later rounds are Jason Campbell and Kyle Orton.  Everybody knows Campbell has great athletic ability, but it’s never translated into consistency, and this could be the year he finally puts up relevant numbers.  Orton never had anything to work with in Chicago, and now there are questions surrounding a terrible start to the preseason, but have some patience.

TIGHT ENDS

1. Jason Witten
2. Antonio Gates
3. Tony Gonzalez
4. Dallas Clark
5. Chris Cooley
6. Greg Olsen
7. Kellen Winslow
8. Owen Daniels
9. Zach Miller
10. Vinsanthe Shiancoe

The rule of thumb with Tight Ends is to generally avoid reaching for one.  The Tight End pool is really deep, as always, and it’s in part because other than the big three (or four if you think Clark will pick up a good portion of Harrison’s looks) you’re not going to get consistent week to week performances.  Last year, for a three week span, Bo Scaif was the best fantasy TE in the league, but I wouldn’t tell you to go out and draft him any time soon.  If you’re a shrude fantasy owner, you can probably snag a guy like Greg Olsen or Owen Daniels a full 3 or 4 rounds later than Gates or Witten, which will net you at least one more impact WR or RB than the guy who wasted a pick on a TE.

I won’t waste any time ranking Kickers or Defenses, because lets face it, they aren’t going to win you any fantasy championships. You should be waiting until the last 3 rounds (preferably two) to be snagging either, so at that point, you should have a solid team and good depth on the bench.  Now, to finish up, I’ll say the words you’ve probably heard a million times.  These rankings are biased, and are based on nothing more than my personal beliefs. I’d use these, and others out there, to form your own rankings, and draft based on that.  Reaching in a draft isn’t a bad thing, if you’re the 4th overall pick, grab the guy you want, because you know he won’t be there when it comes back around to you.

Happy Drafting!

Everyone has a different Top 10. Every major sports website or periodical covers Fantasy sports in some capacity, and what this means is differing opinions on where everyone should be ranked.  The most important thing to realize is there is nothing you can do about the thousands of unforseen events that occur over the year.

This means that despite perfect planning and hours of research, your number #2 overall pick is likely to disappoint you at some points during the season.  Football is not foolproof.

My #1 overall is Adrian Peterson, after him the names get fuzzy. Do I take Michael Turner and his possible sophmore slump? Or do I take a Jones-Drew who has free reign over the offense in Jacksonville now.  Or do I make a splash and take Steven Jackson who’s due for a big year.

The problem is this: Players are in the top 10 because of their performance the previous year.  If the situation hasn’t changed at all and their offense is exactly the same, then you can rest assured that teams are going to be keying in on the successful players.  Ask Bulger and Jackson in St. Louis or Chad OchoCinco in Cinncinati.

But what if the mix has been changed.  New QB? New O Line? Someone retire? all of these events could lead to differing opinions. “Oh, he’s playing with a rookie QB, so he’ll get twice as many touches.”  Yea, but what if their offense can’t move the ball and their playing from behind every game.  Take a look at Kevin Jones in Detroit.  He was supposed to flourish there because of his ability, but he turned out to be a bust.  Dominic Davis in Houston was the same way.  Guy had immense talent but never had the opportunity to showcase it.  He got hurt because of his offenses inability to give him help.

So what’s my point you’re probably asking.  My point is this; planning for your middle rounds is the most important place you can spend your time.  Odds are that your first and 2nd round picks are either safe picks (top teir RB’s or WR’s) or their fliers, hoping you can get lucky.

When you get to round 4 and 5, you run into the interest questions.  Are there enough high level picks at this position to warrant waiting on a QB?  Is it worth taking a stab at a top tier TE rather than taking a #2 WR? This is where your research comes into play.

It’s still a guessing game.  Your great sleeper pick could turn out to be inconsiquential and a waste of a pick; or you could have the next Larry Johnson on your hands.

I challange you to look beyond the cookie cutter draft stratagies.  RB-RB etc etc.  Try to mix it up and plan to field a strong team week in and week out.  If there’s a QB on the board, and you’re torn between the QB and a RB with a chance to be good, grab the QB because you’re better off playing the higher propability of points than shooting from the hip simply to adhere to the formula.  It won’t always work out, but neither does sticking with the recipe.  You’ll still have busts and sleepers and MVP’s.

If you’re a fantasy guy like myself, add me to your favorites, and come back to read and discuss with other regular joes like yourself.

*Coming up* Fantasy Top10 and why we shouldn’t care.